The Brexit economic impact: opened a "Pandora's box"

                 

São Paulo - happened: the United Kingdom decided in a referendum that does not want to be part of the European Union.

No one knows exactly what happens now, and that is precisely the problem. Markets reacted taking the pound to its lowest level in 31 years and knocking down European stocks.

Prime Minister David Cameron resigned and the country itself can discard. The "get" won in Scotland, who feels betrayed, as the economic risks weighed in his decision to stay in the United Kingdom in September 2014.

Research before the vote, 88% of British economists agreed that the British economy would be undermined by Brexit. Last week, 10 Nobel winners issued a letter warning of severe and lasting consequences.

According to a study by PwC commissioned by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) will be eliminated 950,000 jobs. According to the British Treasury, every British household will lose US $ 6,143 annually.

The country's economy is very dependent on international trade and 44% of goods and services exported by the United Kingdom have the European Union as a destination.

Leaving the EU triggers negotiations not only with the rest of the continent but also about 50 countries that have agreements with the bloc, and new tariffs and barriers.

It is reasonable to assume that the European Union will make life difficult for the British, at risk of stimulating the stampede of more countries. Trade is likely to remain intense, but not like before.

This increases the uncertainty and costs in the short term, especially for industries such as financial. Not surprisingly, large banks worked nonstop for the calculation predicting a "catastrophe."

Here are some projections of recent months:

Morgan Stanley

In March, Morgan Stanley identified 4 channels for contagion, with uncertainty on the list: all the rules have to be renegotiated and before that, market players should wait to see what will happen before investing.

Included are projections for 2016 and 2017 the country itself (UK, in green), the euro area (Eurozone, in blue) and the EEC (European Common Market, in yellow) in two scenarios: the "average stress" and " great stress. "

Barclays

"We believe that the implications for the EU (European Union) and the European Monetary Union are at least as important than for the UK," says the note signed by Marvin Barth still in January.

The output of the country again awakens the block dissolution of fear that so frightened the markets at the peak of the last euro crisis.

"The precedent of a member state leaving the union would open Pandora's box: it could be used as a political argument by extreme and populist parties, both the right and the left, to push for an EU output, including in some euro countries" it said.

far-right representatives entered and asked for similar referendums in other countries. The leader of the French National Front, Marine Le Pen, and the leader of the Dutch far-right Geert Wilders, were the first to defend consultations in their countries.

The President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, insisted on Friday that Brexit does not represent the beginning of the end of the EU.

Responding to a reporter's question at a news conference on the EU's executive office in Brussels, Juncker replied simply "no". The talks led to the EU authorities of applause in the room, and Juncker left after answering only two questions.

Open Europe

According to a report by the independent think tank Open Europe, all depends on what the UK will make this such freedom.

When Article 50 is put into practice, no return: the country loses the power to vote and from there is the block that sets the timing and terms of the breakup.

In the best scenario, the country can not just keep free trade with Europe but also opens up further to the rest of the world. In this case, GDP would be 1.6% higher in 2030. In the worst scenario, without any agreement, GDP would fall 2.2% in the same horizon.

More likely, however, is some combination of the two - placing a more realistic estimates window between 0.8% loss and 0.6% gain.

It also depends on the performance of the European economy in the coming decades. If it overcome its challenges and to reintroduce dynamism, the cost of separation increases to Britain - and vice versa.

No country out of the European Union today. Greece almost went out a few times, but because of liquidity crises and tense negotiations over rescue packages, not by an act of will of the Greeks.

"If the UK put so much effort to reform the EU and would have to do to get out of it successfully, both the country and the EU would be much better," the report says.