"Immigration was a decisive issue for Brexit," says teacher

              
         Peter Hall, professor of European Studies Center at Harvard University

São Paulo - The UK out of the European Union was decided by the issue of immigration and opposed two worldviews: parochial and cosmopolitan.

The view is Peter Hall, Professor of Political Economy of European Studies at Harvard University Cento.

He is the author of dozens of books and articles on the continent and serves on the board of academic journals and European institutes.

Other economists point out that Brexit will have a negative economic impact, affects Brazil and is a sign of "a world moving in the wrong direction."

In direct interview yesterday in London, Hall opined about what the decision means and what can come around:

 Why do you think that Brexit won despite the latest polls give advantage to stay?

Peter Hall - was a tight vote that could have gone either way, but the permanence depended mainly negative arguments about the economic cost of output.

And in the midst of a debate in which unsubstantiated claims were thrown on both sides, many Britons have lost confidence in the politicians were saying and simply voted with their instinct.

And many are instinctively opposed to immigration, which was in fact the decisive issue in this campaign.

What are the economic consequences of Brexit to the UK and Europe?

Hall - In the short term, uncertainty is likely to depress the British economy and the British pound, but in the long run, do not think the effects will be catastrophic.

The UK has a dynamic economy and I believe that will continue to sustain one of the most important financial sectors of the world.

         
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For the rest of Europe, the economic costs also should not be so strong. Both sides have an interest in continuing the trade, even in terms somewhat less advantageous than in the past.

 But the EU should not adopt a hard line in the negotiations even if it means costs to the block?

Hall - There is much we do not know. I think the EU will be keen to ensure a relatively free trade between the UK and the continent, but do not think that they can give full access to the common market without demanding in return a contribution to the EU budget and free movement of workers and those are terms that the British government can not accept.

They will find a modus vivendi, but the EU can not make it easier for the United Unidoou would encourage other member states to try something similar.

 Do you believe that other countries could follow suit and lead to a dissolution of the block?

Hall - The leaders of the parties "Eurosceptics" in Europe have called for referendums similar in their countries and recent research suggests that only 52% of the French would vote to stay in the EU is a kind of referendum happen there, a dangerously narrow margin.

However, I think the parties that govern Europe will be eager to avoid new outlets and if the power maintain, will be able to do this.

Is there any advantage in Brexit?

Hall - At this point, it is difficult to see. Those who hope for greater political integration in the EU can believe it will be easier without Britain halfway.

However, I doubt that a much greater political integration is possible in a union of 27 countries with governments and divergent economies.

I do not think the referendum is a disaster for either side, but also does not help anyone. And in the UK, reveals a deep political division that will torture the British politicians for years.

How do you explain the generational difference, which made young people vote for permanence and the old exit, the youth unemployment is much worse, for example?

Hall - Many people do not have dealt with this referendum as purely economic, but as a dispute between a cosmopolitan perspective, looking hopeful way to a more open world and tolerant immigration, and a more parochial perspective, which fears the effects of globalization and in particular immigration.

In general, younger people tend to be more hopeful, especially if you have relatively high levels of education, and were born in a world that was more cosmopolitan.

Whereas the markets will be volatile and governments will have to act to sustain the level of growth we can expect the end of the austerity policies?

Hall - During the campaign, the finance minister George Osborne claimed that the Brexit cause a recession and the loss of revenue would require more cuts in public spending.

But I think if there is a recession, the authorities will relax the fiscal policy, at least in the short term. What happens in the long run depends on who replace Osborne in the post.


The Conservative Party is committed to cutting spending and this may continue to be the goal of the new party leader in the fall, but the first imperative is to mitigate the adverse economic effects of Brexit.